Is $100T Market Cap for Crypto Possible? | Crypto Market Update 1.20
$100T Crypto Market Cap | Market Update | Major Crypto News
Is a $100T Market Cap for Crypto possible?
With growing distrust in the current financial system and the innovative attributes of cryptocurrencies, crypto sees a bright future in terms of growth. Some have modeled a $100T market cap. Is this possible? From where can this money come?
Let us explore.
Institutions are promptly investing into early-stage crypto projects through Venture Capital, an; estimated $32.8 billion to be more precise. Expect the number to rise this year. For example, A17z just announced a $4.5 billion venture fund.
Once regulation over crypto develops, a large cohort of traditional investors will likely join with direct exposure. 80% of these investors look favorably upon cryptocurrencies. The traditional stock market is worth $53 trillion.
When a spot-price Bitcoin ETF hits the market, likely this year, expect Bitcoin to dig into gold’s $12 trillion market cap.
An often-overlooked subject is Great Wealth Transfer. In a study by Cerulli Associates, the firm estimates $68.4 trillion in wealth will transfer into Gen X and Millennial hands in the next 25 years. Considering that 98.9% of Crypto Buyers last year were Gen Z/Millenial/Gen X, these generations will likely invest a lot of money into crypto. For example, 33% of Americans will own Bitcoin by EOY 2022.
Markets are elastic and every 1$ taken in or out of the stock market reflects 5$ in price movement, a natural phenomenon of markets. The crypto market is estimated to have a 1:20 elasticity.
Let us take some rough estimates and calculate a lighthearted scenario for crypto in the next ten years with the information gathered.
In 2030 the stock market will likely be worth $150+ trillion.
1% of $150 trillion (us only) = $1.5 Trillion
5% of The Great Wealth Transfer(us) = $3.4 Trillion
10% of Gold = $1.2 Trillion
Crypto buyers around the globe = $2 Trillion
Total rough estimate = $8.1T
Elasticity (10x conservative) = $80.1T
Current Market Cap Crypto = +$1.8T
Total = $81.9T
The total results are an $82T market cap for crypto.
Not considering a supply reduction, if Bitcoin is 10% of dominance at that time, it will be close to 400k a coin. Other Bitcoin predictions for 2030.
The estimate doesn’t consider various factors and accounts for a 61% gain in the Total crypto market cap per year.
So, do you think an $ 80 trillion market cap is possible in 8 years?
Or is it too much hopium?
I’d love to hear your opinions.
Crypto Market Update
Bitcoin (BTC) teased the market with a significant runup to 43.5k before dumping to 41.2k. BTC nears an important infliction between strong support (40–42K) and a two-month-long downwards trendline. Chart Below
Bitcoin is holding up relatively well when compared to the struggling Nasdaq. Since the FED announcements concerning increased tapering in November, tech stocks have been hit hard since the FED announcements.
Bitcoin is holding up relatively well when compared to the struggling Nasdaq. Since the FED announcements concerning increased tapering in November, tech stocks have been hit hard.
A few smart-contract platforms are holding ground.
MATIC 2.02 -1%
FTM 2.76 -.08%
TRON .069 -1%
TLOS .69 14%
Bitcoin Fear and Greed Index: 19 Extreme Fear
“Bitcoin” Google Trends: 28
Bitcoin Options Max Pain (Mar 24): 50K
How to use The Fear and Greed Index for investing
Major Crypto News
Google is building a new blockchain division signaling interest in Web3.
FINRA considers regulation changes to crypto to protect investors further. The self-regulatory body is considering updating the rules concerning advertising and disclosure to customers.
The FED released a much-awaited CBDC white paper. Officials have no plans on releasing a CBDC any time soon but are asking for public feedback on the matter. The officials reserve the need for a balance between privacy and transparency.
“Any CBDC would need to strike an appropriate balance between safeguarding consumer privacy rights and affording the transparency necessary to deter criminal activity,” the paper says.
Bank of Russia calls for a crypto ban. Considering that the Bank of Pakistan declared the same notion last week that was quickly opposed by their acting president, I don’t see much weight here. Banks are trying to protect their interest.
Agoric (BLD), a JavaScripted-based smart-contract platform, raised $50 million through a native token sale on CoinList. A JavaScript-based platform would have access to a large untapped developer pool since most crypto developers are EVM-based. More on Agoric.
Andreessen Horowitz (a16z) seeks $4.5bn for another cryptocurrency investment fund.
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Thanks for reading fam!
Gabi
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I’m hopeful that is what happens with BTC. The fear index is high now. So I’m thinking buy now and keep buying.